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October Outlook: ‘People Hate Inflation’
The U.S. economy continues to power through the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening in decades. Unemployment is still below 4%, and stocks and home prices remain near record highs. Surprisingly, inflation is ticking up again. The unexpected resilience of the American economy is behind the Fed’s new stance of keeping rates “higher for longer.” While…
Read MoreNavigating By the Stars Under Cloudy Skies
The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations, confound forecasters and generally throw head fakes. Starting in early 2022, the Federal Reserve embarked on its most aggressive campaign of inflation fighting in decades. The Fed’s inflation war was expected to result in a recession. Instead, the economy keeps firing on all cylinders – unemployment remains below…
Read MoreAugust Outlook: A Soft Landing Now Looks Likely
Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates aggressively in 2022, economists and investors agreed that a recession loomed in the near future. The only question seemed to be how dramatic the downturn might be. But a funny thing happened on the way to the inevitable recession: The U.S. economy just kept growing. Second-quarter gross…
Read MoreJuly Outlook: Fed, Inflation Loom Large This Month
Investors are wrestling with uncertainty about a variety of economic questions. Is inflation under control yet? What will the Federal Reserve do next? Does a recession lurk around the corner? In June, the answers to all of those questions proved unsatisfactory. It was a month when the central bank’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) finally…
Read MoreIs the Fed finally going to hit the pause button?
The U.S. central bank’s Federal Open Markets Committee meets June 13-14, and the central bank’s next move is front and center on the minds of investors. After rate increases at 10 consecutive FOMC meetings, is the Federal Reserve finally going to pause its relentless series of aggressive rate hikes? Or will the Fed’s governors conclude…
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