February Outlook: How Long Until Fed Cuts Rates?

Investors keep hoping the Federal Reserve will cut its federal funds rate from its current target of 5.25% to 5.5%. And Jerome Powell and company keep disappointing the optimists. The latest example came at the Fed’s Jan. 31 meeting. The Federal Open Markets Committee held steady on rates – and Powell, the Fed’s chairman, indicated…

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2024 Outlook: Fed Finally Gives Investors Some Good News

Nearly two years after it began aggressively raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve has signaled that 2024 will be the year when investors get relief. In mid-December, markets cheered the Fed’s signals that it has finished raising rates this cycle and expects to begin cutting in the coming months. Reflecting investors’ new expectations, 10-year Treasury…

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November Outlook: U.S. Economy Keeps Surging – But For How Long?

Just when you expect the United States economy to zig, it zags. Gross domestic product, the primary measure of economic output, grew at a 4.9% annualized rate from July through September, the Commerce Department reported Oct. 26. The faster-than-expected pace outperformed forecasts. Since the Federal Reserve began aggressively raising interest rates in early 2021, nearly everyone has…

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October Outlook: ‘People Hate Inflation’

The U.S. economy continues to power through the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening in decades. Unemployment is still below 4%, and stocks and home prices remain near record highs. Surprisingly, inflation is ticking up again. The unexpected resilience of the American economy is behind the Fed’s new stance of keeping rates  “higher for longer.” While…

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Navigating By the Stars Under Cloudy Skies

The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations, confound forecasters and generally throw head fakes. Starting in early 2022, the Federal Reserve embarked on its most aggressive campaign of inflation fighting in decades. The Fed’s inflation war was expected to result in a recession. Instead, the economy keeps firing on all cylinders – unemployment remains below…

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August Outlook: A Soft Landing Now Looks Likely

Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates aggressively in 2022, economists and investors agreed that a recession loomed in the near future. The only question seemed to be how dramatic the downturn might be. But a funny thing happened on the way to the inevitable recession: The U.S. economy just kept growing. Second-quarter gross…

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July Outlook: Fed, Inflation Loom Large This Month

Investors are wrestling with uncertainty about a variety of economic questions. Is inflation under control yet? What will the Federal Reserve do next? Does a recession lurk around the corner? In June, the answers to all of those questions proved unsatisfactory. It was a month when the central bank’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) finally…

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Is the Fed finally going to hit the pause button?

The U.S. central bank’s Federal Open Markets Committee meets June 13-14, and the central bank’s next move is front and center on the minds of investors. After rate increases at 10 consecutive FOMC meetings, is the Federal Reserve finally going to pause its relentless series of aggressive rate hikes? Or will the Fed’s governors conclude…

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