Posts by The Real Asset

Inflation is still running hotter than hoped, labor markets are near full employment, and stocks and home prices are at or close to record levels. Against that backdrop of a booming economy, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is communicating that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates. “This economy doesn’t feel like it’s…

Not so long ago, investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates six times in 2024. But still-high inflation and a still-strong job market keep throwing wrenches into those optimistic plans. Now, it seems likely that the central bank will hold off on cutting rates, and it is almost certain to make fewer cuts this…

Investors keep hoping the Federal Reserve will cut its federal funds rate from its current target of 5.25% to 5.5%. And Jerome Powell and company keep disappointing the optimists. The latest example came at the Fed’s Jan. 31 meeting. The Federal Open Markets Committee held steady on rates – and Powell, the Fed’s chairman, indicated…

Nearly two years after it began aggressively raising interest rates, the Federal Reserve has signaled that 2024 will be the year when investors get relief. In mid-December, markets cheered the Fed’s signals that it has finished raising rates this cycle and expects to begin cutting in the coming months. Reflecting investors’ new expectations, 10-year Treasury…

The Federal Reserve began hiking rates in March 2022, a strategy designed to fight the most intense wave of inflation experienced by the U.S. economy since the early 1980s. Since then, the Fed has lifted its policy rate target from 0.25% to 5.5%. Investors are wondering when the Fed will loosen its stranglehold. In a…

Just when you expect the United States economy to zig, it zags. Gross domestic product, the primary measure of economic output, grew at a 4.9% annualized rate from July through September, the Commerce Department reported Oct. 26. The faster-than-expected pace outperformed forecasts. Since the Federal Reserve began aggressively raising interest rates in early 2021, nearly everyone has…

The U.S. economy continues to power through the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive tightening in decades. Unemployment is still below 4%, and stocks and home prices remain near record highs. Surprisingly, inflation is ticking up again. The unexpected resilience of the American economy is behind the Fed’s new stance of keeping rates  “higher for longer.” While…

The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations, confound forecasters and generally throw head fakes. Starting in early 2022, the Federal Reserve embarked on its most aggressive campaign of inflation fighting in decades. The Fed’s inflation war was expected to result in a recession. Instead, the economy keeps firing on all cylinders – unemployment remains below…

Since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates aggressively in 2022, economists and investors agreed that a recession loomed in the near future. The only question seemed to be how dramatic the downturn might be. But a funny thing happened on the way to the inevitable recession: The U.S. economy just kept growing. Second-quarter gross…

Investors are wrestling with uncertainty about a variety of economic questions. Is inflation under control yet? What will the Federal Reserve do next? Does a recession lurk around the corner? In June, the answers to all of those questions proved unsatisfactory. It was a month when the central bank’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) finally…